Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 229.779988 280.476765 343.646919 429.624072 545.973641 7.015971e+02 9.320651e+02
2025-06-22 170.567492 227.645279 308.119509 434.685802 638.588593 9.742527e+02 1.619375e+03
2025-06-29 140.359420 199.453122 290.551615 450.597644 748.051801 1.337354e+03 2.807613e+03
2025-07-06 117.266431 174.172265 267.726452 446.358037 818.275749 1.681485e+03 4.444713e+03
2025-07-13 107.916877 167.577574 272.345066 490.928950 1007.759958 2.459604e+03 8.997279e+03
2025-07-20 99.799772 160.904686 274.464411 530.881999 1214.127489 3.545489e+03 1.933245e+04
2025-07-27 92.147417 153.312089 272.593280 561.294220 1420.143364 4.979973e+03 4.446714e+04
2025-08-03 84.698390 144.612639 266.246219 578.708779 1604.720281 6.742003e+03 1.106968e+05
2025-08-10 77.525341 135.183327 256.173511 582.991012 1753.175083 8.760220e+03 3.074727e+05
2025-08-17 70.331166 124.602351 241.388847 569.385202 1828.183129 1.061852e+04 9.083475e+05
2025-08-24 64.037953 114.997157 227.048741 552.608847 1882.145465 1.263142e+04 3.714741e+06
2025-08-31 58.565882 106.410212 213.611674 534.569138 1921.263342 1.483027e+04 3.349361e+07
2025-09-07 57.433807 107.108729 223.217679 595.620974 2436.201327 2.734019e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 53.782851 101.823800 216.923669 601.628694 2670.280808 3.923699e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 51.241997 98.683620 215.601170 625.591797 3067.048600 6.537543e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.864826 93.202997 207.010431 618.994403 3250.525620 9.276403e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.242337 94.057070 216.041601 687.735946 4196.225187 2.597131e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 46.284432 93.971621 222.435514 750.126922 5303.484678 9.370956e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 44.920876 92.706146 225.099820 798.083779 6463.151464 5.013540e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 43.165799 90.238447 223.599067 825.720082 7512.560303 5.990374e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 41.127487 86.815249 218.459812 832.535048 8320.465278 4.670133e+10 NaN
2025-11-09 38.733477 82.229275 208.815733 810.907936 8587.896248 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 36.459185 77.755929 198.912154 784.347048 8715.649763 NaN NaN